The Bow Ramp

Monday, May 02, 2005

Iran Revisited

Two posts down, I delved into some of the problems related to regime change in Iran. Today I see an interesting article here by Masoud Kazemzadeh and Shahla Azizi in the Pacific News Service (H.T. Winds of Change)

The gist of the article is that because of the conditions in Iran since the ouster of the Shah in 1979, the average Iranian has lost any idealistic tendencies and has become self-centered and cynical. This is a theme that has occurred before under similar conditions -- Iraq under Saddam, the USSR, etc. The authors predict that the change in the dominant ethos bodes poorly for any chance of an internal ouster of the existing government. Unless, that is, the mullahs do something that pushes the average person over the edge, or there is some sort of outside trigger.

I personally don't think an outright invasion by the U.S. would do it. My guess is that we would see something similar to what happened in Iraq. The average person would see it as our (the American's) business and would stay neutral until there was a clear winner. The tipping point might be reached in certain areas if some group pushed the government to the point of a stupid over-reaction. As the authors concluded, time will tell.