The Bow Ramp

Thursday, July 21, 2005

Copy Cat Bombing - I Don't Think So

Glenn at Instapundit and others were talking about why the bombs in London weren't as deadly as the ones two weeks ago. Different scenarios were discussed, but here is what I think. Al Qaeda activated two different cells for the attacks. The members of each cell do not know the members of the other cell--this is basic operational security. If members of one cell are captured, they cannot compromise the other cell. Thus, each cell has a different bomb maker. The bomb makers received the same training, so the bombs will be of similar construction (latest reports point toward this.)

My guess is that the second bomb maker either forgot some of his lessons, or that he obtained some bad components and did not conduct a test detonation of an extra bomb because of fears of detection. My take is that this will corroborate evidence pointing to Al Qaeda as the instigating group.

It takes time to put these operations together. I doubt that some other "copy cat" group could take the process from start to finish in two weeks. There was undoubtedly central planning, but diverse execution.

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